Balkans will stick with United States over Chinese 5G
Most Balkan countries have signed up to the US ‘Clean Network’ 5G security initiative. With Bulgaria signing on October 23, 2020, 27 out of 30 NATO members have joined the pact, and only Bosnia-Hercegovina and Montenegro in the Balkans have not.
According to the US State Department, the programme aims to safe guard data privacy, security and human rights from such “authoritarian malign actors” as the Chinese Communist Party.
The United States will look to expand its influence in the region in the struggle against “untrusted 5G vendors”. This will not go without a response from China; Beijing will look to use its large presence in Serbia in particular, regarded by many as the region’s most influential country, as a bridgehead for selling its 5G telecommunications equipment. However, the bulk of the region will stick with Washington.
US successes in Balkans
In online ceremonies on October 23, 2020, Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Kosovo signed a declaration that envisions cooperation in the field of 5G telecommunications. More importantly, it limits China’s role in building 5G infrastructure across the European continent.
In doing so,the three joined Albania, which signed the pact in August. At the time, Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama declared that the region needed a strategic approach towards establishing a secure network as it completed the transition to higher levels of digitalisation and data transfer.
The Balkans may not be the most important arena for the United States in its push against China in Europe. Yet although Washington’s sights are now firmly set on such 5G battlegrounds as Germany, the importance of the diplomatic wins in the Balkans should not be underestimated.
China has its own initiatives, such as the17+1(Central-East European countries with China)summits, which include most, if not all Balkan countries. In essence,17+1 cooperation has offered a new economic perspective for the region, under the wings of China.
However, little progress has been made on this during the last year, as proposed Chinese business investments in the region have stalled. At the same time, the United States has pushed forward in securing support for ousting what it perceives as “untrusted 5G vendors”.
In June, Swedish telecommunications company Ericsson won its first big 5G deal in Croatia, dashing any hopes that China and its own telecoms giant Huawei might have had for that country. Hrvatski Telekom selected Ericsson Nikola Tesla, an associate of the Ericsson Group, to be sole supplier of 5G radio access network services until 2024, in the first such deal for Croatia.
At the beginning of November,Romania also rejected Huawei, saying the tech company did not meet the necessary security conditions to be able to build 5G networks on its territory.
All is not lost for China
However, China still has a powerful presence in the region. In September, Huawei opened its innovation and development hub in Belgrade.
This was shortly after Serbia and Kosovo signed a Washington-sponsored economic normalisation agreement. In one of the provisions of the deal, the two sides agree not to allow into their communications networks 5G equipment supplied by “untrusted vendors”, although there is no explicit mention of China or Huawei. This was part of Richard Grenell’s diplomacy towards the Serbia-Kosovo issue; its details may not survive the changeover in Washington, but US distrust of China will probably endure into the Biden presidency.
Serbia and its authorities have long relied on China and Huawei to help further its digitalisation. Last year, Huawei supplied a surveillance network of more than 1,000 facial recognition cameras for the capital, Belgrade. The company also has a USD 182mn deal with state-owned Telekom Srbija for the modernisation of its landline network. These developments alone suggest that cooperation between China and Serbia will continue.
Having a strong presence may also be vital for China to keep a check on the balance of power in the region. As for Serbia, it is being very cautious about committing itself yet to any one side in the 5G race.
Regional approach towards 5G
The region is also moving towards a common approach for securing its 5G networks. At the beginning of November, Albania, Bosnia-Hercegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) on their intention to take action together on 5G networks and services.
The MoU, which is a part of the European Commission’s Digital Agenda for the Western Balkans, aims to establish a coordinated regional effort for secure 5G networks. In turn, this signals that these countries are now ready to look after their own interests on 5G, which includes allowing only trusted vendors into their markets.
With most of the region already being a part of the Clean Network initiative, a common implementation of its core principles would also mean restricting the access of China and Huawei to their markets. It also shows that the region has the patience slowly to upgrade their digitalisation capacities over time. This means taking the matter step by step, instead of the fast-track approach that China has often promised these countries, mostly in terms of their economic development, for example at 17+1 summits.
Outlook
Most countries in the region are in dire need of undertaking necessary digital transformation and will continue to make efforts along this line. Their governments have been very cautious when it comes to choosing a side in the 5G race,but several have committed themselves. Some, like Serbia, are still counting their options and will continue to buy time until they are ready to make a final decision.
With the incoming Biden administration unlikely to change its approach towards the issue, most governments in the region will likely stick with the United States on 5G, in spite of what China might offer in return.
